There’s a lot of good news coming out of Africa. Eleven of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies are African, and the continent’s overall gross domestic product growth is expected to outpace the global average this year and next.
Unfortunately, the good news doesn’t extend to South Africa, the continent’s most industrialized economy and its leading democracy. Growth is flat, and the country barely avoided a recession last year. Officially, nearly one-third of working-age South Africans are unemployed, but the real rate is likely higher. Crime is staggering. South Africa has the highest income inequality in the world. Its productivity is hampered by a nationwide electricity shortage leading to daily rolling blackouts. Last month, the country’s largest city, Johannesburg, was hit by an unprecedented water shortage partly because of crumbling infrastructure.
The African National Congress bears most of the blame. South Africa’s ruling party for the past 30 years, since the country’s first all-race elections, the ANC was once unassailable as the party of the country’s first Black president, Nelson Mandela, and the vanguard of the liberation movement that ended the abhorrent apartheid regime.
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But after three decades of unchallenged power, the ANC has become ossified, unresponsive, and tainted by corruption and failure to deliver basic services. Kickbacks for state contracts have become rampant, especially during the disastrous administration of Jacob Zuma, who faced multiple indictments and allegations of corrupt dealings and who was briefly imprisoned before being questionably paroled. Last month, the powerful speaker of the national assembly and ANC member, Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, was accused by prosecutors of taking $135,000 in bribes when she served as defense minister. She resigned Wednesday.
Now many young South Africans appear to be turning against the ANC. National elections are due May 29, and most signs and surveys suggest the ANC might for the first time lose its absolute majority in Parliament. That would be a good thing.
What happens after the election will be a crucial test for the country’s young democracy and will have implications across the continent for other struggling democracies. South Africa has no experience with a coalition government. How the various parties navigate the uncertainty — and even if the ANC would accept a loss of its complete control — point to a fraught post-election period.
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To be sure, the ANC is still a massive voter turnout machine that commands loyalty among the older generation. Its leaders, including President Cyril Ramaphosa, like to remind voters that many of the country’s problems stem from the inequalities of the repugnant apartheid regime. But among younger voters, that message falls short.
If the ANC lands just a few seats shy of a majority, it could assemble a coalition with independents and tiny parties. But if its losses are bigger — and some projections put its support as low as 40 percent — then the ANC will need to join forces with one of the larger established parties to maintain its hold on government. Which way the ANC turns will determine its economic direction as well as its future foreign policy, including relations with the United States.
The current main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, is expected to come in second. An ANC-DA alliance would likely ensure a centrist-liberal economic policy scaling back the state’s heavy role in the economy. The DA has also been more critical of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine than the ANC, which has adopted a neutral position. The DA runs the provincial government in Western Cape, considered in public opinion surveys to be South Africa’s best-run province. But the Democratic Alliance suffers from the stigma of being seen as the party favored by the country’s White minority.
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Another party poised to do well is an ANC offshoot, the Economic Freedom Fighters, which advocates a blend of Marxist economic policies and land confiscation. Its fiery, charismatic leader, Julius Malema, is also given to harsh, violence-tinged rhetoric. An ANC alliance with the EFF would mean a sharp turn to a far-left, socialist and anti-Western agenda.
The wild card is Mr. Zuma, who has formed a new party, uMkhonto weSizwe, which is expected to peel away votes from the ANC in Mr. Zuma’s native KwaZulu-Natal province. Mr. Zuma retains a significant base. His supporters have also shown a penchant for violence, as in 2021 when Zuma supporters rioted against his arrest. There are fears of a repeat of violence if his new party fares poorly.
Some within the ANC are sanguine about the party losing its majority, calling it the natural evolution of a vibrant democracy. If South Africa’s leaders cultivate this sort of perspective, the country is likely to weather the uncertainty, emerge stronger and — once again — serve as a democratic model for others to emulate.
